Jueves, 15 de Diciembre de 2022, 17:00

(Horario Central Europeo – CET, GMT+1)

Do technical change and mechanisation hurt employment in the manufacturing sectors? An empirical assessment for the OECD countries.

» The present study is aimed to assess the effects of technical change and mechanisation on employment in the manufacturing sectors of the OECD countries over the 1995-2018 period. Using the input-output tables and the database for the Structural Analysis from the OECD statistics, we compute the vertically integrated labour productivity and the vertically integrated capital-labour ratio as proxies of technical change and mechanisation, respectively. The effects of collective bargaining, industrial business cycle dynamics, and insertion in the global value chains are controlled by including the average real wage, the real gross value-added, and the share of domestic employment embodied in foreign final demand in the linear regression. Given that both technical change and mechanisation favour skilled over unskilled labour, we discompose the sample following the OECD sectoral classification of manufacturing industries based on technology: high tech, medium-high tech, medium-low tech, and low tech. The second generation of panel cointegration techniques is applied to conduct the empirical analysis.

First, cross-sectional dependence in data is tested by applying the Cross-Sectional Augmented Im, Pesaran and Shin (CIPS) test by Pesaran (2007). Second, we evaluate whether the variables contain a unit root using the Pesaran CIPS test. As a further step, we examine whether the series are cointegrated using the panel cointegration test and the error correction model (ECM) cointegration test by Westerlund (2007). Lastly, the cross-sectional-autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) and cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) by Chudik et al. (2015, 2016) are employed to estimate the short-run and long-run effects of technical change and mechanisation on manufacturing employment. We expect employment in those manufacturing sectors classified as high tech and medium-high tech will be positively related to technical change and mechanisation. Conversely, those sectors classified as medium-low tech and low tech may be related negatively to the increase in vertically integrated labour productivity and vertically integrated capital-labour ratio.»

Jueves, 30 de Junio de 2022, 17:00

(Horario Central Europeo – CET, GMT+1)

La Ley de Kaldor-Verdoorn desde una perspectiva multisectorial

“El cambio estructural implica modificar las relaciones de intercambio entre las ramas, junto con las proporciones entre las variables económicas. Dado que los sectores adoptan el cambio técnico desigualmente y que la demanda crece asimétricamente, aquellos prosperan a tasas distintas, por lo que el crecimiento es desequilibrado. Análogamente, la ley de Kaldor-Verdoorn postula que el crecimiento de la economía se asocia positivamente con el comportamiento de la productividad laboral manufacturera, si bien no adopta explícitamente el punto de vista multisectorial. Este trabajo explora esta ley desde esta perspectiva y concluye que es posible interpretarla en términos del modelo Insumo Producto, al igual que usar la estática comparada para estudiar la evolución estructural de una economía.”

Jueves, 12 de Mayo de 2022, 17:00

(Horario Central Europeo – CET, GMT+1)

Enabling place-based climate action to address consumption-based emissions: a project to calculate and disseminate local authority carbon footprints in the UK

“Over 300 local councils in the UK have declared a climate emergency and are taking action to report and reduce their emissions. Consumption-based emissions of greenhouse gasses in the UK are 1.6 times larger than territorial emissions. While consumption-based accounts (CBA) are reported at the national level, Local Authorities are blind to these due to lack of data. Consequently, they are also blind to the carbon and cost-effective mitigation options associated with CBA. This project unlocks these options by providing CBAs for every LA in the UK, calculated using a UK focussed MRIO database, household expenditure surveys, geodemographic classifications and other small area statistics.”

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Jueves, 31 de Marzo de 2022, 16:30, 17:00

(Horario Central Europeo – CET, GMT+1)

Combining econometric and input-output methods to assess the regional impact of disasters: the case of red tides and tourism in Florida

“Disaster or hazard events can significantly reduce the attractiveness of a place and reduce tourism demand. The Red Tide event that began in October of 2017 and ended in January of 2019 limited access to marine and coastal recreational activities along the Gulf Coast of Florida and heavily impacted tourism demand for this area. Using microdata on Airbnb properties and water sample records, this work combines econometric methods and multi-regional input-output techniques to estimate the effects of this harmful algal bloom on the peer-to-peer accommodation market. We conclude that for each test detecting a significant concentration of the organism that causes the Red Tide events, the average price and the number of reservation days in Airbnb properties both decline. These declines represented a direct loss of approximately $70 million in the Airbnb market in Florida for 2018. In addition, many other activities are indirectly affected as tourist revenues decline. A multi-regional input-output model for Florida is employed to analyze the interdependencies between the tourism sectors and the broader regional economy. After combining micro- and macro-level modeling, our work concludes that the total economic impacts of the 2018 Red Tide event observed via the Airbnb market correspond to declines of $317 million in sales revenues, $197 in Gross Value Added and nearly 3,000 jobs. Due to interregional spillovers, 81% of the impacts on sales were felt in the Southwest Gulf Area and 19% in the rest of Florida.”

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